Why Is Gambling Revenue Still Growing in Macau?

Macau’s casino revenue is rising again. Does that mean illicit money and money laundering are also returning to the world’s largest gambling hub?

The available evidence does not support that conclusion. Macau’s recovery is being driven primarily by the return of tourism and a fundamental change in the type of customer its casinos serve. The old junket-led VIP model has shrunk dramatically. In its place, casino operators are relying on a broader mix of middle-class tourists, affluent independent gamblers and so-called “premium mass” customers.

Macau generated 169.05 billion patacas, or about US$21 billion, in gross gaming revenue during the first eight months of 2026, up 3.7 percent from the same period in 2025. The headline figure, however, should not be mistaken for an uninterrupted boom. Monthly revenue fell year on year in June, July and August, while the eight-month total remained about 15 percent below its 2019 level. Macau is still recovering, but the pace of that recovery is becoming less dramatic.

The End of the Old VIP Model

Before the pandemic, Macau was heavily dependent on VIP gaming. Specialized intermediaries known as junket operators recruited wealthy gamblers, arranged private rooms, extended credit and helped organize travel and accommodation. At its peak, this network generated enormous betting volumes.

It also presented significant regulatory risks. The combination of privately extended credit, cross-border fund movements and opaque settlement arrangements made the junket system difficult to monitor. China’s anti-corruption campaign, tighter controls on capital outflows and Macau’s revised gaming laws progressively weakened that business model.

VIP baccarat accounted for approximately 46.2 percent of Macau’s casino revenue in 2019. By 2025, its share had fallen to about 27.5 percent. Mass-market table games, by comparison, generated 66.9 percent of market-wide gaming revenue in 2025. The International Monetary Fund has linked this shift directly to tighter rules governing junket operators.

This distinction matters for Western readers. In Macau, “mass market” does not necessarily mean budget gambling. The category includes premium-mass customers—wealthy visitors who may wager substantial sums but do so directly with the casino rather than through a junket. They resemble high-value independent customers at major Las Vegas resorts more than traditional package tourists playing low-limit tables.

For casino operators, these customers can be particularly profitable. Casinos do not have to pay the large commissions and provide the extensive concessions traditionally associated with junket business. A premium-mass gambler may bet less than an old-style VIP whale, but the casino can retain a larger share of the revenue.

More Visitors, More Casual Gambling

Tourism is the second major explanation for Macau’s rising casino revenue.

Macau received more than 40.1 million visitors in 2025, exceeding the 39.4 million recorded in 2019. During the first seven months of 2026, arrivals reached 24.5 million, also above the comparable 2019 figure. It is therefore no longer accurate to say that Macau has not recovered its pre-pandemic visitor numbers.

What has not fully recovered is the economic value of each visit. The recent increase has been led disproportionately by same-day travelers, while the number of overnight visitors has remained below earlier levels. Day-trippers spend less on hotel rooms, restaurants and entertainment and generally have less time to gamble.

Even so, a larger number of visitors creates more opportunities for casual casino spending. Many people now visit Macau as part of a short trip within the Greater Bay Area. They may come for restaurants, shopping, concerts or family entertainment and place a few bets as one part of the experience. Individually, they spend far less than the VIP gamblers of the past. Collectively, however, they provide casinos with a much broader revenue base.

This is similar to the integrated-resort model familiar in Las Vegas and increasingly discussed in Europe: gambling remains central, but it is packaged alongside hotels, entertainment, dining, retail and conventions. Macau’s casino concessions now also require operators to invest in non-gaming attractions and cultural projects.

Growth Is Not Evidence of More Money Laundering

None of this means that money-laundering risks have disappeared. Casinos remain cash-intensive businesses, and Macau’s proximity to mainland China creates particular cross-border financial risks. Those risks require continued monitoring and enforcement.

But an increase in casino revenue is not, by itself, evidence that money laundering has increased. The observable changes point in the opposite structural direction: the intermediary-led VIP system has contracted, direct relationships between casinos and customers have become more important, and the market is now supported by a much larger number of ordinary and affluent independent visitors.

The IMF said in 2026 that Macau had a strong record of compliance with the technical recommendations of the Financial Action Task Force, while also urging the authorities to continue strengthening investigations, prosecutions and convictions. That is a more balanced conclusion than either claiming the industry is free of financial crime or assuming every increase in gambling revenue must be illicit.

Macau has recovered its visitor numbers, but not yet its 2019 gaming peak. The money returning to its casino floors is coming from a broader customer base, while the industry is earning it through a different and more tightly regulated business model.

The gamblers are returning—but the way Macau makes money from them has changed.